Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
